루프드 트랜스포머에서 재귀적 추론 스케줄링
Recurrent reasoning models have attracted growing attention for scaling test-time computation, typically by iteratively refining latent states with shared parameters. However, these models apply each learned update with a fixed unit scale, which can be conservative when updates make persistent progress and overly aggressive when they fluctuate, limiting the benefit of additional loops. To understand how the scale should vary along the trajectory, we first analyze the sensitivity of terminal loss to recurrent update scale. We show that its temporal average admits an exact decomposition into persistent-progress and centered-fluctuation contributions. Based on this, we introduce the Trajectory Adaptive Progress-Fluctuation Scheduler (TAPS), which tracks their balance across recurrent updates and adapts the step size online. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions under which TAPS reduces expected terminal loss and reaches a target quality in fewer recurrent loops. Empirically, w
HuggingFace Daily Papers
주기적 취약 지점: 청크 기반 KV-Cache 압축이 만든 위상 민감도
Chunked KV-cache compression reduces the memory and attention costs of long-context inference by compressing windows of consecutive tokens into fewer cache entries at a fixed stride. Such compression also introduces a new positional coordinate: a token's phase, or its position relative to compression-window boundaries. We uncover a systematic asymmetry in models using such compression: the same information can be easy to retrieve at one phase and difficult at another. We call this periodic variation in retrieval performance phase sensitivity. In large open-weight models with such compression, long-context retrieval accuracy can differ by up to 40 percentage points across phases, revealing periodic weak spots that average benchmark scores can conceal.
To investigate this behavior, we pretrain a family of transformers from scratch across multiple KV-compression designs, reproducing phase sensitivity across the variants. Mechanistic analysis using causal interventions in these models re
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SenseNova-U1.5, 네이티브 통합 시각 지능 향해
We launch SenseNova-U1.5, an 8B-MoT native unified multimodal model that understands, reasons about, and generates visual content within an encoder-free and VAE-free architecture. We strengthen its visual interface through spatially coherent patch reconstruction and scale its training with carefully curated generation and editing data, improved task formulation, structural prompt enhancement, and native resolutions of up to 4K. For post-training, we optimize specialized experts for visual aesthetics, bilingual text rendering, infographic generation, and image editing, and consolidate their capabilities through multi-expert on-policy distillation. Across extensive evaluations, SenseNova-U1.5 largely advances image fidelity, text rendering, complex composition, multi-reference editing, and interleaved generation, while improving instruction following and preserving subject identity, geometry, and unmodified regions. Despite limited exposure to structured formats in its generation data, S
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쌍방 메모리를 넘어: 다자 음성 대화를 위한 상호작용 인지형 멀티모달 메모리와 적응형 에이전트 검색
Long-term memory enables agents to accumulate information and reason across sessions, yet existing research primarily focuses on dyadic text or image-text conversations, leaving long-term memory for multi-party spoken conversations underexplored. This setting requires preserving conversational content, identifying participants across sessions, and retaining who speaks to whom. To this end, we propose VoxPolyMem, an interaction-aware multimodal memory framework combining incremental speaker identification with a memory hierarchy comprising interaction memory, fact memory, and participant profiles. We formulate retrieval as sequential decision-making, where an agent rewrites queries and selects retrieval tools and memory layers based on accumulated evidence to address information gaps. We further introduce Evidence-Gain GRPO (EG-GRPO), which uses round-wise credit assignment to encourage complementary evidence acquisition. We also construct VoxPolyBench to evaluate memory evolution, pers
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SoL-Refiner: 초고해상도 영상을 위한 빛의 속도 원스텝 정제
High-resolution video generation is expensive, as its cost grows rapidly with the number of spatiotemporal tokens. A practical alternative first generates a lower-resolution video and then applies a refiner, but conventional multi-step refinement introduces a second sampling bottleneck. We present SoL-Refiner, a one-step video refiner that transforms low-resolution model outputs into 4K videos with a single denoising step. Our three-stage recipe combines high-resolution continual training, reinforcement learning (RL) post-training, and a final one-step distillation. We introduce Refiner-Bench, a video refinement benchmark constructed from the outputs of different video generators, and use a shared-input protocol to compare refiners at approximately 2K output resolution. At 2K, the one-step SoL-Refiner outperforms all external refiners on the VBench and UniPercept averages, while at 3840!times!2176 it improves both metrics over the three-step LTX-2.3 Refiner. With the complete accelerat
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IMO 금메달을 위한 오픈 레시피: Nemotron으로 올림피아드 수학 훈련
We study how model post-training and test-time inference design affect natural-language proof generation for hard olympiad mathematics. Starting from Nemotron 3 Ultra, we train two specialist checkpoints using supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, and evaluate checkpoint choice, verification, and refinement. Based on these findings, we present an open-model test-time-compute pipeline. The system operates entirely in natural language, with no formal prover, external tools, or internet access. Three Nemotron 3 Ultra checkpoints - the general-availability model and two post-trained specialists - power an iterative search that generates, verifies, and refines candidate proofs; a separate high-compute stage then selects each final submission. The system scored 30 out of 42 points at IMO 2026, reaching the gold-medal threshold. We release the two post-trained checkpoints as well as the training data, the training and inference code, the submitted solutions, and Nemotron-IMO-Benc
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DRG-MAPPO, 협력 공중전을 위한 계층형 동적 역할 그래프 멀티에이전트 강화학습
Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has emerged as a pivotal paradigm for complex decision-making in autonomous systems and air combat. While MARL has demonstrated significant potential in air combat, achieving sophisticated tactical coordination remains a non-trivial challenge. This difficulty is largely attributed to two primary limitations: (1) the absence of structured relational modeling hinders agents from capturing complex, time-varying interactions among battlefield entities; and (2) conventional flat architectures often lack the capability to explicitly model tactical roles, leading to ambiguous task allocation in highly dynamic environments. To address these challenges, we propose Hierarchical Dynamic Role-Graph Multi-Agent Proximal Policy Optimization (DRG-MAPPO), a novel MARL framework that integrates graph-based relational modeling with dynamic role assignment. Specifically, DRG-MAPPO constructs a graph-based representation of battlefield interactions and leverages g
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ANTMAN: 대규모 정보 공간에서 멀티 에이전트 내비게이션을 위한 적응형 요구 추적
Information-seeking agents increasingly operate over information spaces that are too large to process exhaustively. Yet many multi-agent systems organize computation around static partitions of the available space, causing coordination to grow with how information is segmented rather than with what the query still requires. We introduce ANTMAN, an adaptive coordination framework that treats evolving unresolved information needs as the unit of runtime coordination. ANTMAN maintains a revisable Need Graph that tracks unresolved requirements, accumulated evidence, prior attempts, and search progress, and uses this state to control worker selection, routing, and task-local recovery as new evidence is discovered. By separating the coordination policy from substrate-specific search interfaces, the same need-conditioned mechanism can operate across different information spaces. Experiments across multi-document question answering, controlled long-context scaling, and realistic structured navi
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솔버 판정을 넘어: 자동 정형화를 위한 생성형 보상 모델
Neurosymbolic systems rely on mathematical solvers to guarantee reasoning correctness, yet solvers are fundamentally blind to whether a formal translation maintains strict reference-equivalence to a designated formalization. We formalize this vulnerability as Verdict-Preserving-Unfaithfulness (VPU): a failure mode where an incorrect encoding executes successfully and matches the expected verdict. We theoretically prove that structural, verdict-only verification heuristics are mathematically bounded to chance-level detection on these deceptively valid traces. To resolve this, we introduce Generative Verification (GenV), which distills an offline Z3-equivalence oracle into a reference-free, continuous reference-equivalence score by repurposing the language model's native vocabulary space. Mechanistic analysis via decision-projected logit lenses and sparse autoencoders shows this generative readout natively extracts precise spatial error coordinates without explicit localization training.
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Recursive Code World Models, 재귀적 장면 프로그램으로 복잡한 세계 구축
Code world models represent worlds as executable programs, but this representation alone does not determine how to construct a complex world. We introduce Recursive Code World Models (RCWM), a framework for reconstructing complex 3D worlds in code from a single reference image. RCWM couples a Recursive Scene Program (RSP) representation with a construction solver that recursively calls itself. An RSP represents the executable world as compositional scene code, while each solver call follows the same complete process: establish the whole, recursively reconstruct unresolved parts, and revisit the whole to refine their composition. This global-local-global recursion gives fine-scale structures their own perception-and-editing loops while preserving scene-wide geometry and relationships. Reference-aligned views propagate a shared camera projection across levels, while parent revisitation addresses boundaries, spatial relations, and shared errors that emerge after local refinement. A vision
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다국어를 잇는 다리: 인언어 추론 일반화의 핵심, 데이터 믹싱
Reasoning language models have made substantial advances on a variety of complex tasks, yet their capabilities remain overwhelmingly English-centric: models primarily reason in English regardless of the language they are prompted in. This is inaccessible for non-English-speaking users, risks losing the intent of the original question, and forgoes knowledge more readily expressed in the target language. In this work, we advance L2 reasoning, the ability of a model to reason consistently in the language of the user's prompt, thus building an in-language bridge between the prompt and the answer. We approach this problem from a data-centric angle, investigating how to optimize data composition and scheduling in SFT for reasoning generalization. Building Tiny Aya L2-Thinker at 3.35B scale, we achieve an L2 reasoning rate above 93% across 60 languages on 6 benchmarks spanning math, commonsense reasoning, instruction following, open-ended generation, and cultural reasoning while keeping perfo
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NCP-ArchPreview 기술 보고서: Next Concept Prediction으로 잠재 공간 언어 모델 향해 전진
We introduce NCP-ArchPreview, a latent-space language model that pushes autoregressive pretraining beyond standard next-token prediction (NTP). Alongside NTP, the model learns through Next Concept Prediction (NCP) to predict discrete concepts that span multiple tokens, introducing an explicit and more challenging concept-level objective while preserving standard token-level autoregressive generation. NCP-ArchPreview builds a latent space by constructing a product-quantized concept vocabulary directly from its hidden states, and subsequently learns to predict future concepts via a dedicated Concept Module. These predicted concepts are then fed back to the token level to guide subsequent generation, with NTP and NCP trained jointly end-to-end. We scale this architecture to 8.9B parameters and train it on 5.73T tokens from the Dolma-3 dataset, marking the largest demonstration of a latent-space language model to date. Remarkably, by consuming only 51.3% of the total training tokens, NCP-A
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World in World: World Models로 세계를 탐험하다
Autoregressive video world models enable interactive, long-horizon exploration, but flexible control remains challenging. Exploring a source video from new viewpoints requires the generated rollout to remain synchronised with the recorded event, place observed content in the requested view, plausibly complete newly exposed regions, and recover previously generated appearance on revisits. Existing methods typically address these requirements through task-specific modules or additional training. We present World in World, a training-free inference-time interface that converts heterogeneous control evidence into camera- and time-labelled clean visual states, which are read through the native self attention of a frozen causal video model. The evidence comprises source-video observations, target-view scene projections, geometry renderings that guide completion of newly exposed subject regions, and retrieved generated states beyond the rolling cache. Each evidence source carries token-level
HuggingFace Daily Papers
CrossBFM: 휴머노이드 간 공유 잠재 행동 공간 증류
Behavior Foundation Models (BFMs) give humanoids a promptable policy over a latent behavior space, enabling one single vector to represent a motion to imitate, a pose to reach, or a reward to maximize. Forward-Backward representations successfully produce such spaces, but at the cost of hundreds of GPU-hours for a single robot. Moreover, when the training process is repeated for a second robot, it produces a second space unrelated to the first, resulting in embodiment-specific latents that do not unify or transfer. We address these problems with CrossBFM, treating the latent space as the transferable asset for various embodiments. As retargeting provides frame-level cross-embodiment correspondence, we propose a unified encoder architecture with no robot-specific parameters for distilling the behavior space to address all training embodiments simultaneously in less than a GPU-hour. Following this encoder, latent-conditioned trackers turn the distilled latent into whole-body control in a
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EasyPPO: Critic 안정화가 핵심
A key strength of Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is its learned critic, which uses historical trajectories collected during reinforcement learning to estimate expected returns and reduce policy-gradient variance. However, we find that the critic is also a major source of instability in reinforcement learning for large language models (LLMs). We identify two critic failure modes that destabilize PPO. First, filtering truncated rollouts from both actor and critic shifts the policy objective to reward conditioned on completion, allowing truncation to increase even as conditional reward improves. Second, heterogeneous return noise can cause high-variance prompts to dominate critic updates in finite batches. We introduce EasyPPO to address these failures. Actor-only overlong filtering trains the critic on returns from both completed and truncated rollouts. Noise-normalized critic regression weights each prompt's critic loss by the inverse standard deviation of its sampled returns, balan
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픽셀 확산 모델을 위한 적대적 학습
Pixel diffusion models generate RGB images directly, avoiding the bottleneck of an autoencoder, yet their outputs still systematically underrepresent fine-scale natural-image statistics. We show that adversarial learning provides an effective post-training correction for this deficiency. Starting from a pretrained model, we retain its original diffusion or flow-matching objective and add an adversarial loss to the predicted output at non-high-noise timesteps, leaving the model architecture and sampling procedure unchanged. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic study of adversarial post-training for pixel diffusion. Across two pixel backbones, the method jointly improves distribution fidelity, coverage, prompt alignment, and perceptual quality. We further investigate why it works. Frequency-band and power-law analyses show that the original models systematically underproduce natural-image high-frequency content, while adversarial post-training restores this missing spectral pow
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비등방성 표현, JEPA 월드 모델의 플래닝 성능 높인다
Latent world models learn action-conditioned dynamics in representation space and often score candidate actions by Euclidean distance to a goal representation. Joint training typically regularizes the representation to prevent collapse, but the resulting representation geometry also determines how terminal errors are weighted during planning. We show that accurate prediction and noncollapsed representations do not guarantee a task-aligned latent planning cost: isotropic Gaussian regularization can induce a geometry that ranks feasible outcomes differently from the task cost. To address this mismatch, we introduce AnisoWM with ΛReg, which replaces the fixed isotropic Gaussian target with a learnable diagonal covariance under fixed-trace and anisotropy constraints. The prediction objective, predictor architecture, and Euclidean planner remain unchanged; the target is used only during training. Our analysis characterizes the prediction-driven allocation of target variance, its dependence
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이미지 생성으로 추론하기
Chain-of-thought reasoning has revolutionized natural language processing by enabling large language models (LLMs) to decompose problems into intermediate steps before answering. Yet confining reasoning to the textual domain presents limitations for tasks requiring direct manipulation of visual representations. Recent efforts augment multimodal LLMs with external visual expert tools such as depth estimation or object detection modules, but these remain fundamentally limited by their reliance on narrow, rigid operations that cannot flexibly generate or transform visual content. We propose ReImaGin, which leverages image generation models as a flexible visual reasoning mechanism for multimodal LLMs: unlike fixed-function tools, they accept natural language commands and can perform open-ended visual operations, like removing an occlusion or generating a floorplan from multiple disjoint views of a room. Across six diverse visual reasoning tasks including multi-view spatial reasoning and co
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Omni-Decision: 옴니모달 에이전트를 위한 Evidence-Ledger 플래닝
Omni-modal agents must seek evidence across video, audio, web pages, and computation to answer questions. Their main bottleneck is planning: noisy multimodal observations accumulate in conversation history and disrupt later decisions, while multimodal models have limited capacity for multi-step planning. Controlled backend replacements support this diagnosis: replacing the planner causes a much larger performance loss than replacing the perception backend. We present Omni-Decision, an omni-modal agent built on evidence-ledger planning: it replaces the growing dialogue history with an explicit evidence ledger that records what evidence is still missing, what has been confirmed, and where records conflict. A critic reads each noisy observation and passes only the usable content to the ledger, discarding the rest, so the planner works from a compact context throughout the task. Each run records the state, action, and verdict at every step, and supervised fine-tuning and decision-level rei
HuggingFace Daily Papers
VLA 강화학습의 저랭크 구조
Reinforcement learning (RL) is increasingly used to post-train vision-language-action (VLA) models, yet how RL reshapes these policies remains poorly understood. We find that RL across widely used flow-based VLA models, including π_{0.5} and GR00T~N1.5/N1.6, on LIBERO, ManiSkill, MetaWorld, and CALVIN induces substantially lower-rank parameter updates that are highly concentrated in the action expert's Timestep Modules, a small and previously overlooked component. Through systematic module-replacement experiments, we further show that these modules capture a disproportionate share of the performance gains from RL. We then characterize what is encoded in these Timestep Modules. First, we show that RL specializes them to the discrete denoising timesteps used during rollouts, and that this discrete-timestep training underlies the low-rank updates. Second, we find that among their outputs, the shift vector changes most distinctly under RL, and through probing, we show that shift update dir
HuggingFace Daily Papers
부수를 분해한 뒤 보상하라: 정확한 중국어 텍스트 렌더링을 위한 세밀한 검사
Rendering accurate Chinese text remains challenging for text-to-image models. Existing OCR-based reinforcement-learning rewards compare decoded transcripts with target strings. Such rewards overlook the compositional nature of Chinese writing: an ideograph consists of reusable components arranged through explicit spatial relations, yet OCR evaluates it as an atomic character. Consequently, visually different radical-level errors may receive equally coarse feedback, encouraging glyphs that merely resemble the target instead of faithfully reproducing its internal structure. We employ Ideographic Description Sequences (IDS), which comprise spatial operators and character components, and train an expert IDS recognizer to transcribe rendered Chinese text into this representation. Building on this recognizer, we introduce IDSpect, which deterministically decomposes the target text into IDS tokens and aligns crop-level visual IDS predictions with the target sequence. Globally unique token cre
HuggingFace Daily Papers
ROSS: 선택적 감독으로 자기 생성 롤아웃을 다시 학습하다
Large language model post-training generates self-generated rollouts through reinforcement learning and on-policy distillation, yet this experience is often treated as stale once the policy advances. Historical rollouts can remain compatible with a later policy while preserving behaviors that the policy no longer expresses reliably. However, they may also contain mistakes, abandoned attempts, and redundant actions that should not be imitated, motivating finer-grained selective supervision. We introduce ROSS (Relearning from Self-Generated Rollouts through Selective Supervision), which preserves the full historical trajectory as context while applying loss only to selected model-generated continuations. Across domain-specific reinforcement learning, multi-teacher on-policy distillation, and agentic reinforcement learning, ROSS consistently improves upstream checkpoints and outperforms baselines across mathematics, code generation, instruction following, and software engineering. On Qwen
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Feyospace-v1: Cyber Mercury Seven은 프런티어 사이버 모델을 어떻게 훈련했나
Training capable cyber agents is often treated primarily as a problem of model scale, yet open-weight post-training is constrained more directly by the cost of executable environments, reliable multi-turn supervision, and access to strong teachers. We present a data-centric framework that addresses these bottlenecks through five complementary systems: Choulea analyzes hidden reasoning signatures, SkyReal reduces teacher-sampling cost, Hongzwang bypasses API restrictions on teacher execution, PSBreakup restores capabilities weakened by model merging, and Kreator converts expert interventions into trainable reasoning. Our data engine constructs resettable coding, vulnerability, CTF, kernel-history, full-exploit, firmware, and device-backed environments. Candidate trajectories are retained only after execution verification and evidence auditing, yielding 164,269 trajectories for long-context supervised fine-tuning. The three checkpoints improve over their starting models by an average of
HuggingFace Daily Papers
StepAudio 3 Gen 기술 보고서
We introduce StepAudio 3 Gen, a general-purpose audio generation model that supports zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS), voice design, vocal generation, sound effects, music, vibe speech, and mixtures of multiple audio types within a unified framework. At its core, StepAudio 3 Gen is a discrete autoregressive generator that models audio directly over residual vector quantization (RVQ) tokens, departing from the diffusion Transformer-based continuous generation paradigm prevalent in recent general audio models. Its StepAudio Tokenizer represents general audio at 12.5 Hz in a shared 16 times 2048 residual code space, jointly quantizing semantic and waveform-level acoustic features so that each code layer preserves both types of information. For generation, the backbone predicts the first codebook along the time axis using autoregressive modeling, while a lightweight causal Transformer completes the remaining fifteen codebooks along the codebook axis. Our study further identifies three key de
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Top-k 스킬 검색을 넘어서: LLM 에이전트를 위한 다양성 인식 스킬 라우팅
Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on external skills, but routing user requests over large skill registries is difficult because many skills are functionally redundant while complex tasks often require complementary skill sets. Existing skill routers typically rank candidates independently by query relevance, which can waste context budget on redundant skills. We propose Diverse Skill Routing (DSR), a diversity-aware reranking framework that uses a Determinantal Point Process to balance relevance and non-redundancy. DSR introduces a query-residual diversity kernel that penalizes redundant skill overlap while reducing penalties caused only by shared query relevance. On the SkillRouter benchmark, DSR improves recall and full coverage over a strong pointwise reranking baseline, with larger gains on multi-skill queries. These results suggest that skill routing should be treated not only as relevance ranking, but also as complementary set selection.
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제한된 피드백 환경에서 LLM 전문가와 함께하는 온라인 학습
We study adaptive routing of prompts to large language model (LLM) experts to maximize response quality in an online setting with limited feedback. We formulate it as a bandit problem with K actions that represent experts and d features that encode prompts, over a horizon of T rounds. We propose algorithms that strategically select and observe rewards to minimize regret. In the full-information setting, we achieve a regret of O(d T / m), while in the bandit setting we achieve O(d T K / m), where m ll T is a budget on feedback. Our experiments show that we efficiently learn high-quality routing strategies across diverse LLMs from limited feedback.
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합성 음성 기반 고정 화자 태국어 TTS 구축과 평가
In low-resource settings, deploying TTS typically requires choosing between a large voice-cloning model with costly inference or a compact fixed-voice system that requires a speaker-specific corpus. We study a third route: using a large voice-cloning model as a programmable data source to turn a short voice reference (e.g., 15 seconds) into a compact fixed-voice student trained entirely on synthetic speech. This setting makes pipeline design consequential: teacher errors become training targets, while filtering failed generations can reduce coverage of difficult texts. Thai further introduces challenges from ambiguous word boundaries, lexical tone, names and loanwords, numeric verbalization, and Thai-English code-switching. We study how text preparation, synthetic generation, quality filtering, rejection sampling, and frontend choices affect the resulting student, and where teacher limitations remain. We evaluate CER, Challenge-Set Keyword Accuracy, Prosody Pause Accuracy, speaker simi
HuggingFace Daily Papers
합성 데이터는 태국어 OCR을 어디까지 끌어올릴 수 있나
We investigate what makes synthetic OCR supervision transfer to real Thai documents and use the resulting insights to build Wayu-Paxa-OCR-Zero, a Thai OCR model adapted without OCR labels from real Thai document pages. Synthetic data provide exact labels at scale, but "realism" conflates source domain, page context, typography, spatial structure, and glyph variation. We disentangle these factors with a controlled document-reconstruction pipeline and evaluate each variant under page- and crop-level training on printed and handwritten Thai documents. Non-text context has little consistent effect, whereas typeface diversity, two-dimensional structure, and real handwriting glyphs improve transfer; moreover, source-domain matching depends on training granularity, with in-domain reconstruction approaching real printed supervision under page-level training (1.82% versus 1.31% median character error rate) but underperforming out-of-domain reconstruction under crop-level training (15.59% versus
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DataFlex-RL: RLVR 데이터 정책 평가 플랫폼
Data policies for reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) determine which rollouts are used, how strongly they are weighted, and which domains contribute to subsequent training batches. We introduce DataFlex-RL, an evaluation platform for comparing these choices under a common GRPO recipe. Our primary experiment evaluates 13 configurations across 12 matched seeds using Qwen2.5-7B-Base and 12 mathematics, logic, and science benchmarks. Uniform GRPO improves the domain-balanced average accuracy by 7.76 percentage points over the untrained checkpoint. None of the eight rollout-selection or reweighting methods achieves a paired 95% confidence interval that excludes zero relative to uniform sampling, and none of the three adaptive mixtures outperforms a fixed equal mixture at the same level of precision. A corrected 12-seed extension on Llama-3.1-8B-Base places the additional methods on the same score scale as the original controls, but does not reveal a consistent winner in t
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이벤트 예측을 위한 언어 모델·사전지식의 역량 게이팅 풀링
In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under lea
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